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Impact of Vaccination on Measles Transmission Patterns in Gweru City, Zimbabwe, 1960-89

Received: 15 March 2016     Accepted: 25 March 2016     Published: 13 April 2016
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Abstract

A study was carried out in Gweru urban district (population-158233) in Zimbabwe to determine the impact of measles vaccine applied at 9 months of age on measles transmission patterns. A retrospective observational study that used data from measles vaccination records and measles disease surveillance was conducted. Linear regression analysis and the chi-squared test for linear trend (χ2) were used to investigate linear relationships at a 5% significance level. Vaccine coverage rates were 0% in pre-vaccination era in 1960-70 and 2-92% in 1971-89 (median=65, Q1=34, Q3=88) when they significantly linearly increased (p<0.001). In 1960-85 measles incidence rates significantly linearly increased (p<0.001) while in 1986-89 at vaccine coverage rates of >90% incidence rates significantly linearly declined (p<0.001). Proportion of vaccinated cases among measles notifications significantly linearly increased as vaccine coverage rates increased (Slope: +1.19, 95% CI [0.52, 1.86]). At vaccine coverage rates of >80% (1984-89), proportion of vaccine failures among cases aged 60-119 months was significantly higher than at vaccine coverage rates of <80% (1971-83) (p=0.011) while in age group 10-59 months proportions of vaccine failures were not different at vaccine coverage rates of <80% and >80%. In age group 60-119 months incidence rates significantly linearly increased as vaccine coverage rates increased (Slope: +29.88, 95 CI [13.95, 45.82]). In pre-vaccination era, and at vaccine coverage rates of <80% and >80% some 75% of all reported measles cases occurred by age 36-47 months, 48-59 months and 72-83 months respectively. In conclusion, measles incidence rates declined at vaccine coverage rates of >90%, while measles vaccine failures significantly increased as vaccine coverage rates increased. Increasing measles vaccination coverage led to shift of age at infection from age group <59 months to age group 60-119 months and decline in rates of measles transmission.

Published in European Journal of Preventive Medicine (Volume 4, Issue 3)
DOI 10.11648/j.ejpm.20160403.13
Page(s) 65-72
Creative Commons

This is an Open Access article, distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, provided the original work is properly cited.

Copyright

Copyright © The Author(s), 2016. Published by Science Publishing Group

Keywords

Measles Vaccination, Impact, Transmission Patterns

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  • APA Style

    Tawanda Marufu, Seter Siziya, Willard Tinago. (2016). Impact of Vaccination on Measles Transmission Patterns in Gweru City, Zimbabwe, 1960-89. European Journal of Preventive Medicine, 4(3), 65-72. https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ejpm.20160403.13

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    ACS Style

    Tawanda Marufu; Seter Siziya; Willard Tinago. Impact of Vaccination on Measles Transmission Patterns in Gweru City, Zimbabwe, 1960-89. Eur. J. Prev. Med. 2016, 4(3), 65-72. doi: 10.11648/j.ejpm.20160403.13

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    AMA Style

    Tawanda Marufu, Seter Siziya, Willard Tinago. Impact of Vaccination on Measles Transmission Patterns in Gweru City, Zimbabwe, 1960-89. Eur J Prev Med. 2016;4(3):65-72. doi: 10.11648/j.ejpm.20160403.13

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  • @article{10.11648/j.ejpm.20160403.13,
      author = {Tawanda Marufu and Seter Siziya and Willard Tinago},
      title = {Impact of Vaccination on Measles Transmission Patterns in Gweru City, Zimbabwe, 1960-89},
      journal = {European Journal of Preventive Medicine},
      volume = {4},
      number = {3},
      pages = {65-72},
      doi = {10.11648/j.ejpm.20160403.13},
      url = {https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ejpm.20160403.13},
      eprint = {https://article.sciencepublishinggroup.com/pdf/10.11648.j.ejpm.20160403.13},
      abstract = {A study was carried out in Gweru urban district (population-158233) in Zimbabwe to determine the impact of measles vaccine applied at 9 months of age on measles transmission patterns. A retrospective observational study that used data from measles vaccination records and measles disease surveillance was conducted. Linear regression analysis and the chi-squared test for linear trend (χ2) were used to investigate linear relationships at a 5% significance level. Vaccine coverage rates were 0% in pre-vaccination era in 1960-70 and 2-92% in 1971-89 (median=65, Q1=34, Q3=88) when they significantly linearly increased (p90% incidence rates significantly linearly declined (p80% (1984-89), proportion of vaccine failures among cases aged 60-119 months was significantly higher than at vaccine coverage rates of 80%. In age group 60-119 months incidence rates significantly linearly increased as vaccine coverage rates increased (Slope: +29.88, 95 CI [13.95, 45.82]). In pre-vaccination era, and at vaccine coverage rates of 80% some 75% of all reported measles cases occurred by age 36-47 months, 48-59 months and 72-83 months respectively. In conclusion, measles incidence rates declined at vaccine coverage rates of >90%, while measles vaccine failures significantly increased as vaccine coverage rates increased. Increasing measles vaccination coverage led to shift of age at infection from age group <59 months to age group 60-119 months and decline in rates of measles transmission.},
     year = {2016}
    }
    

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    AU  - Tawanda Marufu
    AU  - Seter Siziya
    AU  - Willard Tinago
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    T2  - European Journal of Preventive Medicine
    JF  - European Journal of Preventive Medicine
    JO  - European Journal of Preventive Medicine
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    AB  - A study was carried out in Gweru urban district (population-158233) in Zimbabwe to determine the impact of measles vaccine applied at 9 months of age on measles transmission patterns. A retrospective observational study that used data from measles vaccination records and measles disease surveillance was conducted. Linear regression analysis and the chi-squared test for linear trend (χ2) were used to investigate linear relationships at a 5% significance level. Vaccine coverage rates were 0% in pre-vaccination era in 1960-70 and 2-92% in 1971-89 (median=65, Q1=34, Q3=88) when they significantly linearly increased (p90% incidence rates significantly linearly declined (p80% (1984-89), proportion of vaccine failures among cases aged 60-119 months was significantly higher than at vaccine coverage rates of 80%. In age group 60-119 months incidence rates significantly linearly increased as vaccine coverage rates increased (Slope: +29.88, 95 CI [13.95, 45.82]). In pre-vaccination era, and at vaccine coverage rates of 80% some 75% of all reported measles cases occurred by age 36-47 months, 48-59 months and 72-83 months respectively. In conclusion, measles incidence rates declined at vaccine coverage rates of >90%, while measles vaccine failures significantly increased as vaccine coverage rates increased. Increasing measles vaccination coverage led to shift of age at infection from age group <59 months to age group 60-119 months and decline in rates of measles transmission.
    VL  - 4
    IS  - 3
    ER  - 

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Author Information
  • Department of Community Medicine, University of Zimbabwe College of Health Sciences, Harare, Zimbabwe

  • Department of Clinical Sciences, Copperbelt University School of Medicine, Ndola, Zambia

  • Department of Community Medicine, University of Zimbabwe College of Health Sciences, Harare, Zimbabwe

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